2025年10月PMI分析：季节性不是主要原因

Group 1: PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index fell to 49.7% from 51.9%, and the new orders index dropped to 48.8% from 49.7%[3] - Manufacturing PMI has contracted for seven consecutive months, matching the longest record since August 2015[2] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Insights - New export orders decreased significantly to 45.9% from 47.8%, impacted by new export regulations[3] - The inventory of finished goods decreased only 0.1 percentage points to 48.1%, indicating a high impact of insufficient demand[5] - The purchasing index fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to 49%, ending two months of expansion[5] Group 3: Price Trends - The output price index declined by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, while the raw material purchase price index decreased to 52.5%[4] - The CRB price index increased by 1.55% year-on-year, showing resilience in raw material prices despite the decline in output prices[4] Group 4: Sector Performance - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2%, supported by holiday activities, while the construction index fell to 49.1%[6] - Large enterprises' index decreased to 49.9%, while small enterprises dropped to 47.1%, reflecting a disparity in performance across company sizes[6]