Jinko Solar(SH:688223) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-10-31 09:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -3.92 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -4.54 billion yuan, indicating a significant loss compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 16.2 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter. However, the gross profit margin turned positive at 3.75%, reflecting a 4.77 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The company is experiencing a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.47 billion yuan in Q3, marking a substantial turnaround [3]. - The company is focusing on technology upgrades, particularly with its TOPCon products, which are expected to enhance power output and profitability, potentially generating a premium of 0.5-1 cent per watt [3]. - The energy storage systems are entering a growth phase, with a target of 6 GWh in shipments for 2025, which is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company reported a revenue of 48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 33% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -3.92 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -4.54 billion yuan, indicating a significant loss compared to the previous year [2]. - In Q3, the revenue was 16.2 billion yuan, down 34% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin of 3.75%, reflecting a recovery from previous losses [2]. Operational Analysis - The average delivery price of photovoltaic components has increased, leading to improved profitability. The company shipped 61.85 GW of photovoltaic components in the first three quarters, with Q3 shipments estimated at around 20 GW [2]. - The company has reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, achieving a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.47 billion yuan in Q3 [3]. Technology and Growth Prospects - The company is continuously upgrading its TOPCon technology, with expectations that 40%-50% of its capacity will achieve power outputs above 640W by the end of 2025 [3]. - The energy storage systems are entering a growth phase, with a target of 6 GWh in shipments for 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to -4.92 billion yuan, 1.96 billion yuan, and 4.28 billion yuan, respectively, with expectations of gradual improvement in profitability due to technological advantages and the growth of energy storage systems [3].