HTSC·2025-10-31 10:52Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for A/H shares of Agricultural Bank of China [8] Core Views - The company's performance shows marginal improvement with a decrease in the decline of net interest income and a rebound in non-interest income growth, supported by stable asset quality and declining credit costs [1][4] - The bank's leading position in county-level markets provides resilience for earnings growth, justifying the "Overweight/Buy" rating for A/H shares [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months, the bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.0%, operating income by 2.0%, and PPOP by 1.3% year-on-year, with growth rates improving compared to the first half of the year [1] - As of September, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 10.5%, 9.1%, and 7.5% respectively, showing an increase from June [2] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income rose by 20.7% year-on-year, with intermediary business income up by 13.3% and other non-interest income increasing by 31.7% [3] - Investment net income and fair value changes showed significant growth, with net investment income up by 35% [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.27% with a provision coverage ratio of 295%, indicating stable asset quality [4] - The annualized credit cost decreased to 0.44%, reflecting improved risk management practices [4] Rural Financial Services - The bank has focused on enhancing financial services for agriculture and rural areas, with county-level loans increasing significantly [5] - The balance of loans related to food security reached 1.24 trillion yuan, growing by 23.7% year-on-year [5] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be 2929.45 billion yuan, with a target PB of 1.20 for A/H shares [6] - The estimated BVPS for 2025 is 8.01 yuan, with corresponding target prices of 9.61 yuan and 8.10 HKD for A/H shares [6]