沥青日报：震荡运行-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].