沥青月报：成本支撑减弱，预计延续震荡偏弱-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by cost and fundamental factors. Supply surplus expectations will put long - term pressure on oil prices, and the entry of the asphalt downstream into the off - season will lead to weakening demand, making it difficult for the fundamentals to provide upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on the BU2601 contract in the range of 3,100 - 3,350 yuan/ton [55] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, asphalt showed a weak and volatile trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. At the beginning of the month, due to OPEC+ production increase and macro - negative factors, oil prices declined, weakening the cost support for asphalt. The lackluster peak demand season added downward pressure. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to concerns about supply tightening, driving the market to rebound. Overall, with demand entering the off - season and facing downward pressure, the fundamentals are unlikely to improve effectively, and asphalt is expected to mainly fluctuate with crude oil [6] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - Fed Interest Rate Cut: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" remarks led traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut, with the current expected probability at 71%, down from 90%. The rate cut was in line with market expectations, and future attention should be paid to the US employment market. If economic data further decline, it will intensify concerns about the slowdown of the US economic growth and strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus, suppressing oil prices [11] - Geopolitical Factors: There were frequent geopolitical events in October. The US - Russia presidential phone call, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia all affected the oil market. The sanctions led to a short - term rebound in the market, but since they are not a full - scale embargo, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited. Geopolitical fluctuations have made the market somewhat desensitized, and the driving force has limited continuity [12] - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia as the main contributor. OPEC+ has increased production for two consecutive months, indicating its determination to compete for market share. Market expectations suggest that OPEC+ may continue to slightly increase production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on prices [14] - IEA Forecast Adjustment: The IEA raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [15] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - Production: In October, domestic asphalt production totaled 2.623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 291,100 tons but a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons. Weekly production reached a high at the beginning of the month and then declined as refineries entered the maintenance phase. It is expected that asphalt production will seasonally decline in the fourth quarter, alleviating supply pressure [17] - Refinery Operating Rate: In October, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month as refineries entered the seasonal maintenance period and consumer demand entered the off - season. The weekly operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises was at a multi - year low and is expected to further decline, gradually easing supply pressure [22] - Demand Side - Overall Demand: In October, domestic asphalt shipments increased month - on - month in weekly data but were lower than before the National Day. Terminal rush - work drove replenishment demand, but the lackluster peak season led to a decline in terminal demand. As demand enters the off - season, shipments are expected to seasonally decline, and attention should be paid to winter storage [25] - Modified Asphalt Capacity Utilization: In October, the domestic modified asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month. On October 31, it was 15.03%, 3.91 percentage points lower than the same period last month, showing a trend of first decline and then rebound. As the north enters cold weather, construction is basically completed, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [27] - Import and Export - Import: In September, asphalt imports were 341,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72,600 tons, and the import average price increased slightly and remained stable [32] - Export: In September, asphalt exports were 79,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons, and the export average price increased slightly and remained stable [38] - Inventory - Factory Inventory: In October, domestic sample enterprise factory inventory decreased, but the rate of decline slowed down. On October 31, the inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 27,000 tons from the same period last month. It is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the decline rate [43] - Social Inventory: In October, domestic sample enterprise asphalt social inventory decreased. On October 31, the inventory was 937,000 tons, a decrease of 68,000 tons from the previous week and 168,000 tons from the same period last month. Terminal rush - work drove downstream consumption, accelerating the decline. Although demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure is also easing, and it is expected to continue to decline [47] - Price Spread: In October, the asphalt crack spread remained stable, and the asphalt processing dilution profit remained at a low level this year. Since the upward rebound momentum of crude oil is insufficient and asphalt fluctuates around oil prices, the crack spread is expected to remain at a high level [51]