油脂油料周报：成本驱动豆粕走高，需求不佳油脂下挫-20251031

Report Information - Report Title: Cost Drives Soybean Meal Higher, Poor Demand Leads to Decline in Edible Oils - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Edible Oils and Oilseeds [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is driven up by cost factors, while the price of edible oils drops due to poor demand [2]. - The export of US soybeans is expected to shift from speculation to actual implementation, and the pace of China's procurement will be a key factor affecting the market [104]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in October, and the B50 policy in Indonesia remains uncertain, putting pressure on the international edible oil market [105]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Market Review - CBOT soybeans rose significantly this week. Positive news about China's potential purchase of US soybeans boosted market sentiment, and the main contract broke through the 1100 - cent per bushel mark [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market also trended higher. Initially, it was under pressure due to supply concerns, but later shifted to cost - driven by the rise of CBOT soybeans. The main contract tried to break through 3000 yuan per ton several times [6]. - The increase in spot prices was less than that of futures. High inventory and weak downstream demand (such as the continuous decline in hog prices) put pressure on the market, and the basis declined significantly [6]. 2. US Market - US Soybean Export - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. 3. South American Weather - The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather. As of Friday, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso state in Brazil reached 60.05% of the expected area, higher than last year and the five - year average [24]. - As of October 23, the 2025/26 soybean sowing progress in Brazil reached 36%. Overall, the weather last week was favorable for sowing, but there were abnormal rainfall and high - temperature weather in the central - western region [24]. 4. Domestic Market - Inventory and Profit - Domestic port soybean inventory increased to 811.27 tons this weekend, and the theoretical available days for crushing were 24 days [30]. - Both spot and futures crushing margins were in a loss situation, especially the futures crushing margin loss widened [30]. - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased this week, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 12.5 tons to 105.2 tons, a 13.48% increase from last week [34]. 5. Rapeseed Meal - The operating rate of rapeseed processing plants decreased significantly this week, and the weekly crushing volume decreased from 1.2 tons to 0.4 tons [43]. - The inventory of rapeseed meal remained at 0.8 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 0.1 tons to 0.7 tons, a 17.65% decrease from last week [43]. Part 2: Edible Oils Market Analysis 1. Market Review - US soybean oil oscillated downward this week. The rise of US soybean meal led to active closing of the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage, and the decline of international crude oil and uncertain demand for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry also put pressure on the price [49]. - Malaysian palm oil fell more significantly. The increase in production and decline in exports, along with the slowdown in demand from major importers like India, led to a continuous decline in prices [49]. - Domestic palm oil led the decline in the edible oil market, while soybean oil declined relatively less and remained in an oscillating range [49]. 2. International Edible Oil Information - From October 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.63% month - on - month, and the output increased by 2.78% month - on - month [52]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 showed different trends according to different institutions' data, with AmSpec reporting a 0.27% month - on - month decrease and SGS reporting a 23.8% increase compared to the same period last month [52]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to increase by 10% to 56 - 57 million tons [52]. 3. Domestic Edible Oil Inventory - As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China increased by 7.42 tons to 263.10 tons, a 2.90% increase from last week and a 17.39% increase year - on - year [67]. - The inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased, with soybean oil increasing by 6.74 tons to 148.45 tons, a 4.76% increase from last week [67]. 4. Edible Oil Basis and Spread - The basis of different edible oils showed different trends, and the futures spread between different edible oils also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread rebounded significantly this week [81]. Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bearish [103]. - For soybean oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For palm oil, short - term indicators are bearish, medium - term indicators are intertwined, and long - term indicators are bullish [103]. - For rapeseed oil, short - term indicators are bearish, and medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [103]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: In the international market, the export of US soybeans will shift from speculation to actual implementation, and China's procurement pace is crucial. In the domestic market, high inventory, low demand, and losses in crushing margins may limit the upside potential of soybean meal prices [104]. - Edible Oils: In the international market, the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy will put pressure on the market. In the domestic market, edible oils are following the international trend, and the market is waiting for new positive news [105].