南华原油风险管理日报-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continue to face pressure, with nearly half of the risk premium due to sanctions on Russia reversed. The recent decline is mainly because concerns about supply due to sanctions on Russia have receded, as Russian energy is still recognized by many countries, and India plans to continue purchasing discounted Russian oil through small suppliers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ may slightly increase production in December, and the International Energy Agency points out that the impact of sanctions on price hikes is limited, leading to a rise in bearish sentiment in the market. In the short term, API data shows a significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Sino-US leaders' meeting may boost sentiment, causing oil prices to fluctuate. However, in the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply remains, and it is highly likely that oil prices will decline after a rebound. High volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - Arbitrage: Close short positions on the monthly spread at an appropriate time and wait and see in the short term [3]. Logic梳理 - Core event games dominate short - term directions: The core contradiction in the short - term market focuses on the outcomes and expectation gaps of two key events. One is the OPEC+ video conference on November 2nd. The market generally expects a continuation of the small - scale production increase rhythm, with a planned production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December for the third consecutive month to gradually restore the previously suspended production capacity of 1.66 million barrels per day. The core appeal is to regain the market share taken by US shale oil, and the political consideration of Saudi Crown Prince's subsequent visit to the US further strengthens the rationality of the production increase. The other is the trend of economic and trade relations after the Sino - US APEC meeting. Although short - term sentiment support is limited, if a substantial cooperation breakthrough is achieved, it will directly boost the expectation of oil demand; otherwise, it may lead to a decline in sentiment. The outcomes of these two events will break the current consolidation pattern and become the key triggers for short - term direction changes [7]. - Supply - demand marginal tightness and looseness switching intensify fluctuations: The supply side shows dual characteristics of "sanction disturbances + controllable production increase." The US has imposed secondary sanctions on Russian Rosneft and Lukoil, freezing their assets in the US and banning third - party transactions, which has led major buyers such as India to plan to cut Russian oil imports, causing a short - term impact on the global supply structure of about 2.2 million barrels per day and pushing up the tense sentiment in the spot market. However, the controllable production increase rhythm of OPEC+ and the recovery of Libyan supply (production increased to 1.14 million barrels per day in October, the highest since July) form a hedge to prevent the supply side from tightening excessively. The demand side depends on marginal changes in inventory. The US EIA crude oil inventory previously showed the largest decline in nearly two months (a decrease of 6.9 million barrels), and the rebound in refinery operating rates has driven short - term demand improvement. However, terminal consumption lacks resilience under the background of a weak global economy. The rapid switching of the supply - demand marginal balance leads to intensified oil price fluctuations [8]. - Sentiment and capital aspects amplify short - term elasticity: Market sentiment is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks and volatility. The escalation of US sanctions on Russia has led to a geopolitical premium, pushing the daily increase of Brent crude oil to 5.7% at one point. At the same time, the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) has fluctuated significantly recently, and the implied volatility in the options market has soared to 56%, reflecting the market's strong expectation of short - term fluctuations. The capital aspect has also followed up. CFTC data shows that the net long speculative positions in WTI crude oil have increased significantly, indicating that institutions have reached a consensus on a short - term rebound. However, a high concentration of positions also means that if the event fails to meet expectations, it may trigger a rapid liquidation and pullback. Coupled with investors' wait - and - see sentiment towards policies and geopolitics, short - term capital games have further amplified the oscillation elasticity of oil prices in the range of $60 - $65 [9]. Related Information - EIA natural gas report: As of the week ending October 24th, the total US natural gas inventory was 3.882 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 74 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 29 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and 171 billion cubic feet higher than the five - year average, with an increase of 4.6% [10]. - US President Trump: A very large - scale agreement may be reached, involving the purchase of oil and gas from Alaska [11]. - Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG): As of the week ending October 29th, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.754 million barrels, reaching a two - week high of 24.781 million barrels [11]. Global Crude Oil Market Price and Spread Changes - The report provides price and spread data for various crude oils such as Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, and Oman on different dates (October 31st, October 30th, and October 24th, 2025), including daily and weekly price changes, monthly spreads, and cross - regional spreads [12].