淘鸡有所加速，鸡蛋多空分歧加大

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term, new grain harvest brings supply pressure, focus on North China's weather impact; mid - term, conduct band trading around new - season drivers; long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing logic. Consider low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract [5]. - Pig: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair; mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage; long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized. Suggest waiting and seeing for near - month contracts and being cautious about far - month contracts [11][12]. - Egg: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported; mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range; long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [17][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - Important Information: On October 31, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2001 yuan/ton, and were stable in North China at 2169 yuan/ton; port prices in Jinzhou rose by 10 yuan/ton to 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton, and were stable in Shekou at 2285 yuan/ton; the number of futures warehouse receipts was 63966; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong widened to + 380 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Logic: Short - term, new grain supply pressure exists, spot is weakly stable, pay attention to North China's weather. Mid - term, trade in a wide range. Long - term, follow import substitution + planting cost pricing and focus on policies [5]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a mid - long - term range trading strategy. Focus on low - buying opportunities for the 2601 contract after callback, with the first support at 2100, the second at 2050 - 2080; the first pressure at 2150, the second at 2160 - 2170. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2120 - 2130 [6]. Pig - Important Information: On October 31, the national average pig price was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. In September, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%. As of October 30, the average slaughter weight was 124.66 kg, up 0.06 kg from the previous week. The price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.36 yuan/jin [11]. - Market Logic: Short - term, supply exceeds demand, near - month contracts focus on basis repair. Mid - term, pig prices may enter a bottom - grinding stage. Long - term, pig production capacity will continue to be realized [12]. - Trading Strategy: For near - month contracts, wait and see after closing short positions. For far - month contracts, pay attention to sow inventory changes. For the 2601 contract, the pressure at 12500 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2603 contract, the pressure at 11800 - 12000 is verified, and support is at 11000 - 11200; for the 2605 contract, the pressure at 12200 - 12300 is verified, and support is at 11500 - 11600; for the 2607 contract, support is at 12000 [13]. Egg - Important Information: On October 31, the average egg price in the main production areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, stable; in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. On October 30, the production - link inventory was 1.05 days, stable; the circulation - link inventory was 1.11 days, up 0.01 days. On October 31, the average price of old hens was 4.18 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin. In September, the number of laying hens was about 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 6.05%. The estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% [17]. - Market Logic: Short - term, egg prices are under pressure and supported. Mid - term, supply exceeds demand, prices may run in a low - level range. Long - term, wait for the de - capacity process driven by over - culling [18]. - Trading Strategy: Close short positions. Wait and see. If inventory levels continue to rise, consider shorting the 2512 contract with pressure at 3180 - 3200. Mid - long - term, determine the trading direction based on culling behavior [19].