Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.48%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price rebounded from recent lows. However, with both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.72%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The high - supply and high - inventory situation of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, but demand is performing well. The industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate, and the price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment. However, demand concerns remain, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.56%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level. However, ore supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, Lan Fo'an pointed out that a package of debt resolution plans will be further implemented, and the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts will be carried out. A unified long - term supervision system for local government debts will be established, and strict accountability will be imposed on illegal debt - raising and false debt resolution. The reform and transformation of local financing platforms will be accelerated, and the establishment or alienation of various financing platforms will be prohibited. The debt structure will be optimized, and a long - term government debt management mechanism suitable for high - quality development will be built. Support will be provided for high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength to promote the rapid development of new productive forces [6]. - Pan Gongsheng stated that globally, macro - prudential policy tools are already rich and still developing rapidly. Based on the assessment results of the macro - prudential monitoring and analysis framework, the policy toolkits in areas such as systemically important financial institutions, broad credit, real - estate finance, and cross - border capital flows should be continuously enriched and improved. Policy tools to deal with macro - economic and financial market fluctuations should be studied and reserved, and a management mechanism for creation, implementation, evaluation, feedback, and optimization should be established to make them more standardized [7]. - At the third - quarter information conference of the China Iron and Steel Association on October 31st, Vice - President and Secretary - General Jiang Wei said that in the first three quarters, China's steel exports increased year - on - year and imports decreased year - on - year. However, as the global trade environment tightens, the pressure and risks of steel exports are increasing [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,190, and 3,261 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 4. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,330, 3,250, and 3,365 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and - 8. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,980 with a change of - 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,170 with a change of 10. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 with a change of - 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 803 with a change of - 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 827 with no change, the sea freight from Australia is 9.48 with a change of 0.13, the sea freight from Brazil is 23.11 with a change of 0.64, the SGX swap (current month) is 105.84 with a change of - 0.11, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 107.70 with a change of - 0.70 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,106 with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,126, the lowest price is 3,097, the trading volume is 985,855 with a decrease of 455,123, and the open interest is 1,879,450 with a decrease of 15,466 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,308 with a decline of 0.72%, the highest price is 3,330, the lowest price is 3,302, the trading volume is 431,109 with a decrease of 183,385, and the open interest is 1,470,219 with a decrease of 3,067 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 800.0 with a decline of 0.56%, the highest price is 802.0, the lowest price is 792.0, the trading volume is 305,778 with a decrease of 20,095, and the open interest is 540,280 with a decrease of 11,268 [11]. 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore (including inventory changes, seasonal inventory), the inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore, the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills) [13][18][27] 5. Future Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.52 tons week - on - week, and the supply has reached a relatively high level this year with increasing inventory pressure. The demand has improved seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 6.17 tons week - on - week and the daily high - frequency trading volume increasing. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the improvement space is limited. Supported by a positive macro - atmosphere and cost, the rebar price has rebounded from recent lows, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market logic switches to the industrial side, steel prices will face pressure again. Attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.10 tons week - on - week and remains at a high level this year. The high - inventory situation has limited reduction, and supply pressure is still high, which continues to put pressure on prices. The demand is performing well, with the weekly apparent demand increasing week - on - week and remaining at a high level in the same period. However, the high - frequency trading volume is relatively weak, and the fundamentals of the main downstream cold - rolled products have not improved, so demand concerns remain. The positive factor is the marginal improvement of external demand, but it needs to be tracked after the price rebound. The high - supply and high - inventory situation remains unchanged, but the demand is good, and industrial contradictions have not continued to accumulate. The price has rebounded recently supported by positive market sentiment, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Be cautious of the market logic switching to the industrial side [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for iron ore has been declining. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline is expanding. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated and seasonal production - restriction disturbances occur frequently, the demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decline, which may drag down the ore price. Although the arrival of goods at domestic ports has dropped significantly, it is mainly due to short - term weather disturbances. Overseas miners' shipments remain at a high level, and according to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound. The domestic iron ore production is stable, and the ore supply remains high. With improved market sentiment and a switch in the arbitrage logic, the iron ore price has returned to a high level, but the supply is high while demand continues to weaken, the fundamentals are poor, the upward driving force is weak, and the high valuation will continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [37].
预期现实博弈，钢矿延续震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-31 11:32