房地产及建材行业双周报（2025/10/17-2025/10/30）：地产销售仍低迷，建材“反内卷”带动企业盈利改善-20251031

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 5.5% in sales area and 7.9% in sales revenue for the first three quarters of 2025. The decline has widened compared to the end of August [3][26]. - The report highlights a shift in the real estate sector towards "quality, service, and sustainability," moving away from high leverage and high turnover models. It emphasizes the importance of urban renewal to unlock potential in existing stock [3][27]. - The building materials sector is expected to see a steady recovery in profitability, with a target of exceeding 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 [3][51]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 30, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 0.31% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.03 percentage points [13]. - In September 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.4% decline [24][26]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][27]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The Shenwan Building Materials Index rose by 2.19% over the past two weeks, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [28]. - The report notes a significant decline in national cement production, down 5.2% year-on-year to 1.259 billion tons, marking the lowest level since 2010 [48][52]. - Companies such as Conch Cement, Taipai Group, and Huaxin Cement are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [52]. Specific Material Insights - The glass and fiberglass sectors are facing pressure with low prices, but the report anticipates a long-term improvement in competition due to supply constraints [5][52]. - The report suggests that the photovoltaic glass industry is transitioning towards a model driven by technology and sustainability, which is expected to enhance profitability [5][52]. - Consumer building materials are seeing improved margins due to price increases and demand from urban renewal projects, with companies like North New Materials and Rabbit Baby recommended for attention [53].