Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-31 11:40Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Macro Aspect: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - Supply - Demand and Profit: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - Spot Market: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Supply - Demand and Inventory: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - Upstream Situation: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - Downstream Situation: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].