Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bullish on the lithium carbonate main contract [76] Core Viewpoints - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline month - on - month, and overseas import pressure will ease. Demand remains at a high - prosperity level, resulting in a stage supply - demand mismatch and an upward shift in the price center of lithium carbonate [76] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's official manufacturing PMI in October was 49 (previous value 49.8), and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1 (previous value 50). The GDP growth rate in Q3 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than 5.2% in Q2. The monthly growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 7.1% (previous value - 7.1%), with real estate investment in September at - 21.3% (previous value - 19.5%), and the decline continued to widen. China and the US reached tripartite results, and tariffs were suspended for one year. The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bp to 3.75 - 4% and will stop reducing its balance sheet from December 1st, but its stance on subsequent interest rate cuts is hawkish [3] Supply Side - The estimated output in October was about 97,000 tons, a slight increase from last month. Domestic smelting capacity has expanded, and output has continued to grow year - on - year with sufficient raw material supply. Salt lake restart and increased spodumene operation rate contributed to the output growth, while the operation rate of mica remained low. In September, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase [3] Demand Side - From September 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.307 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 17% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.878 million, a 24% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 1.489 million, a 21% year - on - year increase and a 15% month - on - month increase, with a cumulative wholesale volume of 10.433 million this year, a 32% year - on - year increase [4] Inventory - As of October 30th, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 127,359 tons, a decrease of 9,566 tons from last month. The inventory of upstream smelters was 32,051 tons, a decrease of 1,441 tons; the inventory of downstream material factories was 53,288 tons, a decrease of 7,705 tons; and the inventory of other links was 42,020 tons, a decrease of 420 tons. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,641 tons, a decrease of 14,068 tons from last month [4] Cost and Profit - As of October 24th, the average industry cost was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month. The price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase from last month [4] Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium - battery products increased to varying degrees from September 30th to October 30th. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,500 yuan/ton to 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.24% increase; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 72,000 yuan/ton to 81,500 yuan/ton, a 13.19% increase [5] Market Review in October - As of October 30th, LC2601 closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, a 14.56% increase from last month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 yuan/ton, a 12.2% increase. The basis discount widened. The open interest of the main contract was 530,000. The main contract of lithium carbonate rose strongly, with a significant decline in warehouse receipts and an accelerated destocking of total inventory [6] Production - As of September, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,322,420 tons, a 3.02% month - on - month increase. The monthly operation rate was 50.28%, a 1.97% increase. The production in September was 95,442 tons, a 3.3% month - on - month increase and a 50% year - on - year increase. As of October 24th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,170 tons, a 405 - ton increase from last week, and the enterprise operation rate was 52.31%, a 0.91% increase [10][11] Import and Export - In September 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The import price was about 8,625 US dollars/ton, a 0.8% month - on - month increase. In September, China's lithium spodumene imports were 711,000 tons, a 14.8% month - on - month increase [15][20] Apparent Demand - In September, the domestic apparent consumption of lithium carbonate was 114,888 tons, a 0.9% month - on - month increase and a 44% year - on - year increase. The terminal market was in the traditional consumption peak season, and the new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy stimulated consumption advance [22] Terminal Demand - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year increase. The penetration rate reached 57.8%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from last month. The power battery loading volume was 76.0GWh, a 21.6% month - on - month increase and a 39.5% year - on - year increase [25] Energy Storage Market - In September 2025, the domestic energy storage market tender scale was 11.7GW/33.3GWh for energy storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders, with other procurement orders also landing. The average price of 2 - hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 31% month - on - month increase [30] 3C Digital Market - In Q3 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 322.7 million, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The total shipments of global PCs increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 72 million. In September, the smartphone production was 122.75 million, a 0.1% year - on - year increase and a 22% month - on - month increase [31] Lithium Iron Phosphate - As of October 24th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 83,503 tons, a 22,300 - ton increase from last month. The enterprise operation rate was 73.49%, a 4.58 - percentage - point increase [36] Ternary Materials - During the terminal sales peak season, the downstream procurement demand for ternary materials was strong [38] Other Cathode Materials - The demand for other cathode materials was stable, and leading enterprises maintained full production and sales [47] Cost Side - As of October 30th, the price of African SC 5% was 620 US dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar increase from last month; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 950 US dollars/ton, a 120 - dollar increase; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,575 yuan/ton, a 245 - yuan increase [58] Profitability - As of October 24th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,679 yuan/ton, a 489 - yuan increase from last month, and the industry profit was 7,424 yuan/ton, a 2,352 - yuan increase. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,004 yuan/ton, a 481 - yuan increase, and the industry profit was 6,418 yuan/ton, a 91 - yuan decrease [60][62] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of lithium carbonate from January to November 2025. The supply - demand difference is expected to be negative in the later period, indicating a tight supply - demand situation [75] Views and Strategies - In November, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will continue to improve, with the total inventory maintaining a destocking trend. The supply growth rate may decline, and demand remains strong. The price center of lithium carbonate will move up. The main contract of lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, and buying on dips is more cost - effective [76] Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after sufficient dips, with a reference range of [78,600, 90,000]. Hedging strategy: Production enterprises can hedge at high prices according to their production situations or reduce the hedging ratio. Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [77]
碳酸锂月报：需求延续高景气，碳酸锂谨慎看涨-20251031
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-31 11:49