玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If there is no real production cut, the end of the 01 contract for glass and soda ash is downward. Currently, glass has high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and the expected production cut has not been realized; soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious over - supply. However, there are expectations of cost increases for both glass and soda ash in the long - term [2]. - Without substantial cold repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.83% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 74.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.50% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 8.5% [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell glass futures (FG2601) at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (FG601C1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at 1000 - 1050 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (FG601P1000) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Soda Ash - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1350 - 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Market Data Glass - On October 31, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1232, down 11 (-0.88%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1328, up 1 (0.08%); the 01 contract was 1083, down 8 (-0.73%) [7]. - The average spot price of glass in the Shahe area on October 31, 2025, was 1118, down 3 from the previous day [8]. Soda Ash - On October 31, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1316, down 8 (-0.6%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1383, up 1 (0.07%); the 01 contract was 1225, down 10 (-0.81%) [9]. - The average spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025 [10]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - There are still expectations of cost increases (fuel and raw materials) for glass and soda ash, which will affect the pricing of far - month contracts [6]. - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely ruled out and may be repeatedly traded [6]. - After the spot price of glass was reduced, production and sales improved, and manufacturers had a slight reduction in inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed [6]. Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of both glass and soda ash, and doubts about the downstream's ability to absorb, resulting in an off - peak season during the peak period [9]. - There are supply pressures. There is an expectation of ignition for glass production lines, and there is future production - capacity expansion pressure for soda ash [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting on Wednesday did not release any signals, and the expected production cut was disappointed again [9].