棉花棉纱周报：中美贸易预期向好，关注近?套保压?-20251031

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].