沪铜月报：沪铜月报历史新高后，铜牛或需盘整蓄力-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Sino-US summit and the Fed's hawkish rate cut, the macro positives are exhausted. Copper reached a record high and then consolidated at a high level to accumulate strength. It is recommended to use trailing stop-loss to protect long positions. In the long term, copper is still favored. [6] - Copper, as the "gold" of the new era, has increasing strategic value in the context of Sino-US competition. In the short term, due to the exhaustion of macro positives, copper needs to consolidate at a high level. In the long term, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand, copper is expected to perform well. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Sino-US summit led to a relaxation of Sino-US relations, with both sides making concessions. The US inflation data was lower than expected, and the government was shut down. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. In the short term, the macro positives are exhausted, and copper needs to consolidate at a high level after reaching a record high. [99] - On the fundamental side, global copper concentrate supply is disrupted, and the copper smelting industry at home and abroad is against the so - called "involution." With the winter maintenance of domestic smelters, the electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of output contraction in the fourth quarter. [99] - In terms of inventory, non-US copper inventory is decreasing, but most of it is locked by hedge funds and traders, unable to adjust the global copper inventory imbalance. High copper prices suppress demand, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors drag down demand, while the power and automotive sectors maintain resilience. [99] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - US Monetary Policy: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a December rate cut. [9][11] - Sino-US Relations: The Sino-US summit on October 30 led to both sides making concessions. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control for one year, and China will suspend relevant export control measures. [12] - China's Policy: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes the economy as the center, which boosts market confidence and is conducive to the transformation of new and old kinetic energy in the economy. [13] - China's Economic Data: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. [16] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Copper Concentrate: Global copper concentrate supply is facing continuous disruptions. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and production interruptions in other mines have exacerbated the shortage of copper concentrate. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted. [49] - Refined Copper: In 2025, China's refined copper production contributed most of the global increment, while overseas production declined in many countries. In October, the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to continue to decline due to smelter maintenance. [58][64] - Waste Copper: The supply of waste copper is tight. The export of high - quality waste copper in Europe is restricted, and the import of US waste copper is limited. The refined - waste price difference has widened. [55] Demand - Downstream Processing: High copper prices have suppressed demand. In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased slightly, but the overall demand has not improved significantly. The operating rate of some downstream enterprises has fluctuated. [73] - Terminal Demand: The power and new energy vehicle sectors show resilience. From January to September, grid engineering investment increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly. [77] 4. Summary and Outlook - Price Range: In November, the focus range for Shanghai copper is [84,500, 91,500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,500] US dollars/ton. [7][99] - Operation Strategy: Hold long positions, do not blindly chase high prices. For new entrants, try to go long on dips. [7][99]