Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]
中航期货橡胶月度报告-20251031
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-10-31 12:02