焦煤焦炭月度报告-20251031

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the double - coking futures showed a unilateral oscillating upward trend. The coking coal price was driven by limited output release and downstream rigid procurement, while coke followed coking coal with slightly weaker elasticity [7]. - Macroeconomic events in October boosted market sentiment. The Sino - US leaders' meeting and relevant policy documents provided positive signals for the market [10][11]. - In the long - term, the coal industry will shift from scale expansion to high - quality development, which will control the disorderly increase in coal supply and may lift the price floor [38]. - The coking coal market has limited supply growth space and low inventory pressure. However, the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may drag on the upward elasticity of coking coal prices. The futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong [38]. - Coking enterprises have increased prices multiple times to relieve losses, but the subsequent price increase space is limited due to low steel mill profits and high finished product inventories, and coke prices follow coking coal [41]. 3) Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - In October, the coking coal main contract rose 14.21% with an increase of 119,000 lots in open interest, and the coke main contract rose 9.49% with a decrease of 1,887 lots in open interest. Coking coal supply was limited by environmental and safety factors, and downstream rigid procurement led to inventory depletion. Coke "had pressure on the upper side and support on the lower side" and followed coking coal [7]. 02. Data Analysis - Macro Analysis: In October, major macro - events such as the Sino - US leaders' meeting and the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal boosted market sentiment. The proposal guides the coal industry towards high - quality development and the manufacturing industry towards building a modern industrial system [10][11]. - Domestic Coking Coal Supply: As of the week ending October 31, the operating rates and daily outputs of sample coal washing plants and mines were lower than the same period last year. After the National Day, the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable with limited growth space [13]. - Coking Coal Imports: In September 2025, China's coking coal imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia all showed growth, and Mongolia's imports are expected to continue rising [14]. - Inventory Status: As of the week ending October 31, the inventories of sample mines, coal washing plants, and ports decreased compared with the same period last year. The overall coking coal inventory pressure was not significant [21]. - Inventory Replenishment Willingness: As of October 31, independent coking enterprises had a stronger willingness to replenish coking coal inventory than steel mills. After the holidays, independent coking enterprises gradually replenished inventory, while steel mills mainly purchased on demand [24]. - Coke Production Capacity Utilization: As of the week ending October 31, the capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills showed a weakly stable trend, and the coke supply pressure was not significant [26]. - Coke Demand: As of the week ending October 31, steel mills' profitability declined, hot metal production was under pressure, and coke consumption slightly weakened but remained at a high level [29]. - Coke Inventory: As of the week ending October 31, the coke inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports was not significant. Independent coking enterprises' production and sales were relatively balanced, steel mills reduced inventory after the holidays, and ports had a slight increase in cargo collection [32]. - Coking Enterprises' Cost and Price Increase: As of the week ending October 31, independent coking enterprises had an average loss of 32 yuan per ton of coke. Due to the rising coking coal price, coking enterprises raised prices three times, but the subsequent price increase space was limited [34][36]. 03. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the long - term development of the coal industry is favorable, and the coking coal futures market is expected to remain oscillatingly strong, but the decline in steel mill profitability and hot metal production may have a negative impact [38]. - Coking enterprises' subsequent price increase space is limited, and their profits are under pressure. Coke prices follow coking coal due to cost - side influence and low inventory pressure [41].