Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-31 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guotai Junan Securities, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market [6][7]. Core Insights - Guotai Junan's 9M25 performance exceeded expectations, with a net profit of 220.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 131.8%. The company's revenue reached 458.9 billion yuan, up 102% year-on-year [1][6]. - The report highlights the company's strong growth across various business lines, with significant increases in brokerage, investment banking, and asset management revenues [6][7]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in total assets, surpassing 2 trillion yuan, and has improved its operating leverage [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Guotai Junan are as follows: - 2025E: 65.397 billion yuan (growth of 50.70% year-on-year) - 2026E: 71.806 billion yuan (growth of 9.80% year-on-year) - 2027E: 82.986 billion yuan (growth of 15.57% year-on-year) [2][7]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 28.412 billion yuan (growth of 118.15% year-on-year) - 2026E: 24.976 billion yuan (decline of 12.09% year-on-year) - 2027E: 29.650 billion yuan (growth of 18.71% year-on-year) [2][7]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with 2025E at 1.58 yuan [2][7]. Market Performance - As of October 30, 2025, Guotai Junan's closing price was 19.34 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 260.974 billion yuan [3][6]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.21 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.19 [2][3]. Business Segment Performance - The brokerage segment reported a revenue increase of 143% year-on-year, while investment banking and asset management also showed strong growth [6][7]. - The company's market share in financing reached over 10%, outperforming competitors [6][7]. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report suggests an upward revision of profit forecasts due to the company's expanding client base and active market conditions, maintaining a positive outlook for future growth [6][7].