Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-31 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) [5] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a stable development in the natural gas business [5] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2,169.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 126.3 billion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.5% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 0.8 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2,969.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 156.142 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [4] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.85 yuan [4] - The company’s oil and gas production reached 1.377 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [5] - The average oil price for Q3 2025 was approximately 64.2 USD per barrel, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9 USD [5] Operational Insights - The refining segment showed improvement, with a processing volume of 1.041 billion barrels of crude oil in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [5] - The sales of refined oil products reached 12.0876 million tons in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [5] - The natural gas sales volume was 218.5 billion cubic feet, up 4.2% year-on-year, with a significant profit increase of 23.8% in the natural gas sales segment [5]