Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]
塑料日报：震荡下行-20251031
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-31 12:20