制造业受短期扰动，增长动能有望加快

Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49% in October, marking the lowest level in over two years[1] - The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points, the largest drop for October since 2009[1] - Export orders declined by 1.9 percentage points, exceeding the drop in new orders by 0.9 percentage points, indicating disruptions from tariff threats and reduced working days[1] Price Trends and PPI Outlook - The purchasing price index for raw materials in manufacturing dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5%, while the factory price index also fell by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%[2] - Recent PPI trends show stabilization in August and September, with a potential slight negative growth in October, but the decline is expected to be limited[2] - The current round of PPI declines is likely nearing its end, with a higher probability of PPI recovery next year compared to further declines[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1% in October, indicating overall stability[2] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, while the construction sector PMI fell by 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%[2] - Business activity indices in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors remained above 60%, driven by holiday travel[2] Economic Growth Projections - Increased investment policies are expected to accelerate economic growth momentum by the end of this year and early next year[3] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan in new policy financing has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan[3] - The anticipated economic growth target for the year is around 5%[3]