原油季报：淡季供给过剩，库存压力逐渐凸显，油价仍有压缩空间

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with a slight downward shift in the central level. WTI remained around $60 per barrel. The core driver of the oil market is the supply surplus during the off - season, which drives oil prices gradually lower. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are the main disturbing drivers. Looking ahead to November, the oversupply of crude oil is expected to become more prominent, global crude oil inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices still have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds, and buy call options for position risk control. The recommended price ranges are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Review: In October, international oil prices first decreased and then increased, with WTI remaining around $60 per barrel. The off - season supply surplus is the core driver, while macro and geopolitical factors are the main disturbances [8][106]. - Outlook: In November, the supply surplus will be more prominent, global inventories will continue to accumulate, and oil prices have strong downward momentum. It is recommended to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control. The price ranges to focus on are WTI [50, 60] for the outer market and SC [380, 480] for the inner market [8][106]. 2. Macroeconomic Situation - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30, the second rate cut this year, and will stop shrinking the balance sheet on December 1. Powell said the current interest rate is close to the neutral range, and it is "far from certain" whether to cut rates in December. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3.2% [8][25]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply - OPEC+ may increase the production target by 137,000 barrels per day in December. As of the week ending October 24, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.64 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 barrels per day. In September 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [9][40]. - The on - the - way crude oil volume is rising, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [15]. - Russia's current crude oil export volume is about 5 million barrels per day, and its petroleum product export volume is about 2.37 million barrels per day. China and India are the major buyers. However, due to pressure from the West on India, Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases [17]. - Demand - The IEA's latest monthly report lowered the 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the 2026 growth at 700,000 barrels per day. OPEC predicted that the global oil demand increment in 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [9]. - As of the week ending October 24, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.6713 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,600 tons. In September, the monthly crude oil import volume was 47.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.87%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 423.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.75% [61]. - Inventory - As of the week ending October 24, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, and strategic crude oil reserves increased by 530,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels [68][70]. - As of the week ending October 31, China's port inventory was 28.982 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 327,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.649 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [72]. 4. Spreads and Positions - Spreads - The inter - market spread is mentioned, but no specific data is provided. The outer - market monthly spread remains low. As of October 30, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.37 per barrel, and the M1 - M6 spread was $0.72 per barrel. U.S. gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are at certain levels, and domestic refined oil cracking spreads have declined [86][92]. - Positions - Information on WTI, Brent positions, inner - market SC warehouse receipts, and total positions is provided, but no specific analysis is given. 5. Summary - The off - season supply surplus is the core driver of the oil market, and with the accumulation of inventories, oil prices are under downward pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds and use call options for risk control.