每日核心期货品种分析-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - Copper: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - Asphalt: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - PP: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - Plastic: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - PVC: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - Coking Coal: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - Urea: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].