南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20251031

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.08% and a historical percentile of 24.70% over the past 3 years [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Group 4: Core Views - Due to news such as the US B - 1B bomber approaching Venezuela and US sanctions on Russia, both crude oil and asphalt have risen recently. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments are not affected. This week, asphalt supply decreased due to refinery maintenance, while demand in the spot market remained weak, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure improved, with stable refinery inventory and declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage remains unsolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. Recently, crude oil has rebounded strongly, causing the asphalt futures price to rise but the spot basis to weaken, indicating weakening demand. In the long - term, northern demand will end as the temperature drops, while southern demand may increase after the rain decreases. Currently, the peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Due to recent external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling after the futures price reaches the resistance level. It is necessary to pay attention to OPEC's latest meeting resolution and whether the Middle East OSP quote will be lowered as expected [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - The US sent bombers near Venezuela [6] - Refineries in Shandong (Shengxing and Lanqiao) started maintenance and stopped asphalt production [6] - The tariff confrontation between China and the US is expected to ease [6] - The US cancelled the "Trump - Putin meeting" and imposed more sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting two major Russian oil giants. Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities, and the US purchased strategic oil reserves [7] Group 6: Bearish Factors - OPEC continued to increase production [7] Group 7: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day and 120 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the North China spot price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/day and 90 yuan/week; the South China spot price was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged [8] Basis - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/day and 71 yuan/week; the Yangtze River Delta spot 12 - contract basis was 216 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 49 yuan/week; the North China spot 12 - contract basis was - 4 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/day and 41 yuan/week; the South China spot 12 - contract basis was 196 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/day and 99 yuan/week [8] Cracking Spread - On October 31, 2025, the Shandong spot cracking spread against Brent was 104.2694 yuan/barrel, down 6.9316 yuan/day and 13.607 yuan/week; the futures main contract cracking spread against Brent was 106.6955 yuan/barrel, down 1.7328 yuan/day and 2.3432 yuan/week [8]