Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-31 12:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank of China is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [6]. Core Insights - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 550.88 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220.86 billion yuan, up 3.03% year-on-year [1][2]. - The bank's annualized weighted ROE stands at 10.47%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.31 percentage points [1]. - The bank's net interest income, net fee and commission income, and net other non-interest income showed year-on-year changes of -2.40%, +13.34%, and +31.72% respectively, indicating a continuous improvement trend [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Agricultural Bank's operating income, pre-provision profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.97%, 1.13%, and 3.03% respectively, showing improvements compared to the first half of 2025 [2]. - The bank's total assets grew by 10.52% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 9.31% and 15.64% respectively [3]. - The bank's net interest margin recorded at 1.30%, ranking second among the major banks, with a slight decline of 2 basis points from the first half of 2025 [3]. Non-Interest Income and Asset Quality - Non-interest income showed strong performance, with net fee and commission income increasing by 23.59% year-on-year in Q3 2025, benefiting from the stock market recovery [4]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.27% as of the end of September 2025, ranking second lowest among major banks, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1 basis point [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to maintain strong growth potential, with projected net profit growth rates of 2.07%, 3.97%, and 4.95% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The estimated book value per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 7.69 yuan, 8.12 yuan, and 8.53 yuan respectively [5].