制造业PMI为何超季节性回落？：——2025年10月PMI点评

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]