有色金属周度报告-20251031

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The aluminum market shows different trends in the short - and long - term. In the short term, alumina is expected to have a weak and volatile operation, while Shanghai aluminum will operate in a high - level oscillation. In the long term, with the positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate with a stronger tendency [36]. - The polysilicon market is characterized by "supply contraction expectation leading and divergence between futures and spot trends". In the short term, it will maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend, and in the long term, the industry's over - supply pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and actual demand [37][39]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2512) price decreased from 87720 yuan on October 24, 2025, to 87010 yuan on October 31, 2025, a weekly decrease of 710 yuan (- 0.81%). The spot price increased from 86400 yuan to 87550 yuan, a weekly increase of 1150 yuan (1.33%) [2]. - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2512) price increased from 21225 yuan to 21300 yuan, a weekly increase of 75 yuan (0.35%). The spot price increased from 21110 yuan to 21270 yuan, a weekly increase of 160 yuan (0.76%) [2]. - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2512) price remained unchanged at 22355 yuan. The spot price increased from 22200 yuan to 22290 yuan, a weekly increase of 90 yuan (0.41%) [2]. - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2512) price decreased from 17595 yuan to 17390 yuan, a weekly decrease of 205 yuan (- 1.17%). The spot price decreased from 17300 yuan to 17225 yuan, a weekly decrease of 75 yuan (- 0.43%) [2]. - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2512) price decreased from 122150 yuan to 120590 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1560 yuan (- 1.28%). The spot price decreased from 122900 yuan to 121950 yuan, a weekly decrease of 950 yuan (- 0.77%) [2]. - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) price decreased from 2810 yuan to 2793 yuan, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan (- 0.60%). The spot price decreased from 2950 yuan to 2930 yuan, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan (- 0.68%) [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) price increased from 8920 yuan to 9100 yuan, a weekly increase of 180 yuan (2.02%). The spot price increased from 9400 yuan to 9500 yuan, a weekly increase of 100 yuan (1.06%) [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2601) price increased from 79520 yuan to 80780 yuan, a weekly increase of 1260 yuan (1.58%). The spot price decreased from 75400 yuan to 73800 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1600 yuan (- 2.12%) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2601) price increased from 52305 yuan to 56410 yuan, a weekly increase of 4105 yuan (7.85%). The spot price decreased from 52980 yuan to 52250 yuan, a weekly decrease of 730 yuan (- 1.38%) [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in Major Exchanges - As of October 31, the SHFE copper inventory was 116,100 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons (10.78%) compared to last week. The LME copper inventory was 134,600 tons, a decrease of 1800 tons (- 1.32%) compared to last week. The COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 1100 tons (+ 10.78%) compared to last week [12][13]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory and Processing Fees - As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, the same as on October 17. As of October 31, the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc inventory was 67,800 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week [22]. 3.4 Aluminum Inventory and Market Situation - As of October 31, the LME aluminum inventory was 558,100 tons, an increase of 84,900 tons compared to last week. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,600 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared to last week. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 6650 metric tons, a decrease of 201 metric tons compared to last week. Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to decrease, while the overseas inventory increased [32][33]. - Alumina futures prices remained in a weak and volatile pattern, and electrolytic aluminum futures prices were in a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply of bauxite overseas is sufficient, and the cost support is weakened. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, but the production in some northern regions has decreased. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, but the demand is restricted by high prices, environmental protection policies, and the end of the peak season [35]. 3.5 Polysilicon Market Situation - The polysilicon market shows "supply contraction expectation leading and divergence between futures and spot trends". The futures market is strengthened by policy expectations, with the main 2601 contract rising 7.85% weekly, while the spot market is still sluggish. Policy - wise, the "establishment of a reserve platform" expectation supports the futures price, but details are unclear. Fundamentally, supply is expected to tighten, with a planned production cut in the southwest in November. The industry inventory is slightly accumulating, and demand is weak [37].