饲料养殖周度报告-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Rising import costs drive up domestic prices. For soybean meal, wait for more details on US soybean purchases; for rapeseed meal, supply tightens but demand also decreases significantly, lacking continuous positive fundamentals [39]. - Medium - to long - term: Global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - Soybean Meal: The closing price of the M2601 futures contract on October 30, 2025, was 2994 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton (1.91%) from October 23. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.36%) [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: The RM601 futures contract closed at 2401 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 62 yuan/ton (2.65%) from October 23. The average spot price in China was 2520 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (2.44%) [4]. - Corn: The C2601 futures contract closed at 2111 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.36%) from October 23. The summary price at Bayuquan Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [4]. - Pigs: The LH2601 futures contract closed at 11880 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 320 yuan/ton (-2.62%) from October 23. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 12.49 yuan/kg, up 0.62 yuan/kg (2.25%) [4]. - Eggs: The JD2511 futures contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 130 yuan/ton (4.29%) from October 23. The average price in the main producing areas of China was 2.93 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg (2.45%) [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Cost - end: US Midwest has sporadic showers, and cold air may disrupt harvesting and field operations. US soybean export inspections are at the lower end of market expectations, down 33% from the previous week and 60% from the same period in 2024. Brazil's soybean exports in October 2025 are estimated at 7 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but still up 58.0% from last year. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal has arrived, but its impact on prices is limited [10]. - Supply - end: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, up 4.8% month - on - month and 13.2% year - on - year [10]. - Demand - end: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the national soybean crushing volume rebounded to a high level, and the提货量 decreased, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. On October 29, the total soybean meal trading volume of major domestic oil mills was 53,500 tons, down 59,900 tons from the previous day [10]. - Inventory - end: In the 43rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, down 174,100 tons (2.26%) from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, up 78,400 tons (8.03%) from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply - end - Import - As of October 30, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans was 482.00 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end - Pressing - As of the week of October 30, the soybean pressing profit was - 130.15 yuan/ton, down 1.65 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3856 million tons, up 86,800 tons from the previous week. As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 61%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of October 30, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3496 million tons, up 236,900 tons from the previous week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of October 24, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0044 million tons, up 41,300 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the past five years [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of October 24, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,000 tons, down 37,300 tons from the previous week, at a medium level in the past five years [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to rapeseed import quantity, production, and sowing area [35]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to inventory, supply, demand, trading volume, and consumption [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Soybean Meal: Short - term, wait for more details on US soybean purchases. Medium - to long - term, the continuous upward momentum is limited due to abundant global supply. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term, supply is tight but demand is weak, lacking continuous positive fundamentals. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [41].