贵金属策略报告-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from their lows, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.27% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 1.41%. The short - term core logic includes: the risk of trade war has eased, but geopolitical risks still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1st. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - Data Summary: - International prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4038.30 per ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; London gold was at $3994.15 per ounce, down 0.31%. [2] - Domestic prices: The main Shanghai gold contract closed at 921.92 yuan per gram, up 1.07%; gold T + D closed at 921.02 yuan per gram, up 1.51%. [2] - Positions and inventories: Comex gold positions were 528,789 hands; Shanghai gold's main contract positions decreased by 4.11% from the previous day. LBMA gold inventory was 8,598 tons, and Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Data Summary: - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.73 per ounce, up 3.08% from the previous day; London silver was at $48.18 per ounce, up 0.01%. [6] - Domestic prices: The main Shanghai silver contract closed at 11,441 yuan per kilogram, up 1.67%; silver T + D closed at 11,410 yuan per kilogram, up 1.90%. [6] - Positions and inventories: Comex silver positions were 165,805 hands; Shanghai silver's main contract positions decreased by 1.41% from the previous day. The total visible inventory decreased by 1.03% from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.90%, and the Fed's total assets are $66,371.78 billion, down 0.00% from the previous week. [8] - Economic indicators: The ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35, the dollar index is 99.52, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.31. [8] - Inflation indicators: CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00%, and PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74%. [10] - Employment indicators: The unemployment rate is 4.30%, and non - farm payrolls changed by 2.20 million. [10] - Other indicators: The geopolitical risk index is 188.52, the VIX index is 16.23, the CRB commodity index is 300.77, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.0944. [11]