Xinda Securities·2025-10-31 14:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is expected to improve, with long-term growth potential [1][6] - The company has shown resilience in coal operations despite a decline in revenue and profit due to effective cost control and stable production and sales [3][4] - The coal chemical business has significantly increased profitability due to cost reductions [3] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see substantial improvement in performance due to stabilizing coal prices and inventory adjustments [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 104.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.12 billion yuan, down 39.15% [1][2] - The company achieved a coal production of 135.89 million tons, an increase of 6.94% year-on-year, and sales of 126.43 million tons, up 2.64% [3] - The average selling price of coal was 507.06 yuan/ton, down 23.13% year-on-year [3] Cost Management - The cost of coal sold was 319.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, with plans to reduce costs by 3%-5% for the year [3] - The chemical segment achieved a gross profit of 4.881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [3] Future Outlook - The company completed the acquisition of Northwest Mining, adding significant coal resources, which supports long-term growth [6] - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of over 180 million tons for the year, with expectations of further capacity increases in the coming years [6] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 10.6 billion, 11.2 billion, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 1.05, 1.12, and 1.26 yuan [6]