日本消费行业9月跟踪报告：刚需消费疲软，体验消费走强

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the Japanese consumer sector, highlighting a divergence between essential and discretionary spending, with a focus on companies with optimistic profit growth prospects [5]. Core Insights - Basic necessity demand remains sluggish, while experiential consumption gains momentum, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards services like dining and entertainment [2][15]. - Inflationary pressures are impacting essential goods, with food and beverage prices rising significantly, while clothing retail is underperforming due to prolonged hot weather [2][15]. - The report notes a decrease in foot traffic in physical retail stores due to fewer holidays, affecting sales across various sectors [2][15]. - The duty-free business continues to decline, but there are signs of recovery in shopping demand as the yen depreciates [2][15]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose to 35.3 in September, the highest since December 2024, indicating improving consumer sentiment [7]. - Real wages fell by 1.4% year-on-year in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline, while nominal wages increased by 1.5% [7][9]. - The core CPI in Japan increased by 2.9% year-on-year in September, driven primarily by rising food prices, particularly rice, which saw a nearly 100% increase [9][11]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales in the food and beverage sector decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in August, with major retailers like Aeon and 711 reporting modest same-store sales growth [16][19]. - Drugstore sales showed slight growth, but foot traffic declined, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [19][20]. - The beverage industry continues to struggle, with major brands like Suntory and Coca-Cola reporting stagnant sales [20][22]. Discretionary Consumption - The restaurant sector showed strong performance, with companies like Salia and McDonald's reporting significant same-store sales growth [4][28]. - Clothing sales were negatively impacted by warm weather, with Uniqlo experiencing a decline in foot traffic despite an increase in average transaction value [30][35]. - Department store sales increased by 1.4% year-on-year in September, supported by a recovery in domestic sales and inbound tourism [35][38]. Market Performance - The consumer sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with essential goods showing mixed results and discretionary items performing better [5]. - The report highlights specific companies with positive profit outlooks, such as Salia and Asahi Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [5].