中国氢能产业链国际竞争力比较与政策建议

Global Hydrogen Industry Trends - Hydrogen is recognized as the ultimate energy source of the 21st century, with a complex and lengthy industrial chain[4] - The global hydrogen production and consumption scale reached approximately 105 million tons by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 2.9%[24] - China leads the world in hydrogen production capacity, exceeding 50 million tons per year, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.6%[24] China's Hydrogen Industry Development - By the end of 2024, China's hydrogen production is expected to surpass 36.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 3.5%[24] - The Chinese hydrogen energy market is projected to reach a production value of around 1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with over 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations and approximately 100,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles[16][22] - As of 2024, China has built 540 hydrogen refueling stations, covering 31 provinces, accounting for over 36% of the global total[42] Policy and Strategic Support - Over 60 countries have announced hydrogen development strategies by the end of 2024, with significant policy support from major economies like Japan, the EU, and the US[15] - China's hydrogen energy policies have expanded significantly, with over 560 specialized policies issued by various levels of government by the end of 2024[17] - The Chinese government aims to increase the number of hydrogen refueling stations to at least 1,000 by 2025 and 5,000 by 2035[42] Cost and Technological Advancements - The cost of hydrogen production through electrolysis is heavily influenced by electricity prices, which account for approximately 75.4% of the total cost[26] - The average price of hydrogen production in China is expected to fall below 30 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2024, a decrease of about 15.6% year-on-year[29] - China's hydrogen fuel cell system production costs have decreased by 75%-80% compared to 2018, driven by technological advancements and domestic production[46]