【国投期货|有色视点】你问我答：多晶硅：再现反内卷信号?

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has significantly strengthened recently, driven by the improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies, the demand resilience shown by the September domestic photovoltaic installation volume, and the rising expectation of state reserve purchase [1] - The spot market has limited ability to push up prices due to the high inventory and slow inventory clearance under the pattern of weak supply and demand [2] - The polysilicon market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in capacity policies and industrial production cuts, and the short - term trend depends on policy news [3] Summary by Related Topics Factors Driving the Strengthening of Polysilicon Futures Price - The improved third - quarter performance of photovoltaic listed companies has enhanced the secondary market's expectation of the industry's "anti - involution" effect, and the sentiment has spread to the futures market [1] - In September, the domestic photovoltaic installation volume reached 9.66GW, showing demand resilience with a 31.25% month - on - month increase, and the expectation of the year - end installation peak season supports market confidence [1] - The expectation of state reserve purchase has risen again, and the statements of leading polysilicon enterprises in the media have promoted the market's optimistic sentiment towards capacity regulation [1] Situation of the Spot Market - After the National Day, the polysilicon trading was generally dull, with the quotation generally stable and locally loose. The lower limit of the N - type re -投料 transaction price dropped slightly to 49,500 yuan/ton, and the upper limit remained at 55,000 yuan/ton [2] - In October, the polysilicon production cut was less than expected, with the monthly output expected to increase by about 4,000 tons, and the industry inventory remained at a high level [2] - In November, although there is an expectation of production cuts in the southwest region due to the dry season, the downstream silicon wafers may also cut production simultaneously due to the association quota constraints. The inventory clearance is expected to be slow, and the ability to push up the spot price is limited [2] Uncertainties and Future Trends in the Polysilicon Market - The market is in a game between policy expectations and industrial reality, with uncertainties in whether capacity policies will be implemented as scheduled and whether industrial production cuts will be weakened by high prices [3] - The short - term trend depends on the fermentation of policy news, with the futures price being easy to rise and hard to fall. However, if the expectations are disappointed or the spot price fails to follow the rise, the risk of a high - level correction will significantly increase [3] - It is recommended to operate with a light position and follow the trend, and pay attention to policy signals and the production plans of leading enterprises [3]