Tianfeng Securities·2025-11-01 12:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance continues to be under pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to external factors such as the downturn in the steel and construction industries, as well as adjustments in the real estate sector. The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards [1][3]. - The company has potential for value re-evaluation driven by its mineral resources, particularly two copper mines in Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are expected to significantly enhance performance once operational [3][1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 335.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.97 billion yuan, down 41.88% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10%, an increase of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 1.61%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 19.39 billion yuan, although this was a reduction of 11.35 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2]. Contract and Project Insights - The new contract value for the first three quarters of 2025 was 760.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year. However, the overseas new contract value increased by 10.1% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in international markets [3]. - The company has significant mineral resource reserves, with two major copper mines in development that are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 471.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 14.61% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.43 billion yuan, down 19.51% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is projected at 13.32, while the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is expected to be 0.46 [5][12].