Guotou Securities·2025-11-01 12:58Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 31.81 CNY [4]. Core Views - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 234.05 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 17.37 billion CNY, up 14.7% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 77.56 billion CNY, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.34 billion CNY, up 12.7% year-on-year [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Q3 domestic revenue growth accelerated to 10.8% year-on-year, while overseas revenue grew by 8.3%. The domestic market saw significant contributions from popular products, particularly in the home air conditioning sector, which experienced over 30% revenue growth in Q3. The overseas market maintained rapid growth in emerging markets such as South Asia and Southeast Asia, while developed markets like North America and Europe showed stable operations [2][3]. Profitability Improvement - The gross margin for Q3 was 27.9%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. This improvement was driven by digital transformation in procurement, R&D, and manufacturing in the domestic market, alongside a high-end brand strategy and global supply chain collaboration in overseas markets [2][3]. Expense Management - The operating expense ratio in Q3 improved by 0.1 percentage points, with reductions in both sales and management expense ratios. This was attributed to enhanced operational efficiency from digital transformation and retail innovations in the overseas market [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was 6.35 billion CNY, an increase of 2.9 billion CNY year-on-year, primarily due to expanded revenue scale. The company's contract liabilities at the end of the period were 4.15 billion CNY, up 17.9% year-on-year, indicating strong demand from distributors [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its global layout and digital transformation, leveraging its multi-brand and cross-product strategies to drive revenue and profitability growth. EPS estimates for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 2.27 CNY, 2.53 CNY, and 2.79 CNY respectively, with a PE valuation of 14x for 2025 [3][4].