国信期货热卷周报：短线反弹，热卷压力增大-20251102

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel supply increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, performing strongly in the off-season, but the inventory depletion rate was still slow compared to the same period last year. The decline in molten iron production indicates that steel mills started to cut production under profit pressure. The divergence between steel production and molten iron production may be due to statistical caliber issues. Starting next week, steel production is expected to start to decline, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased [7]. - The spot market of hot-rolled coils showed a weak and volatile trend [10]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - For the basis of hot-rolled coils, the 01 basis is 12, the 05 basis is -12, and the 10 basis is -20 [14]. - The cold-hot spread is not detailed in the report. 3.3 Part 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Hot-rolled coil profits: The production profit is 33, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 119, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 89, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 103 [21]. - Production: The production of hot-rolled coils is 323.56, cold-rolled coils is 85.97, rebar is 212.59, and the five major steel products is 875.29 [24]. - Raw materials: Not detailed in the report. - Inventory: The inventory of hot-rolled coils is 406.59, cold-rolled coils is 175.98, rebar is 602.52, and the five major steel products is 1513.74 [29]. - Terminal demand: Not detailed in the report. - Exports: Exports continued to strengthen on a month-on-month basis, providing support for demand [33]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook for the Future - The main contract of hot-rolled coils rebounded in the short term this week, showing a strong trend, but the upward pressure increased. Steel production is expected to decline next week, and steel may enter a new round of inventory depletion, increasing pressure on raw materials and strengthening the negative feedback expectation. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in a short-term short position [35].