国信期货铁矿石周报：供需转弱，铁矿压力增大-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Iron ore currently faces increased supply and decreased demand, leading to greater contradictions and short - term pressure, and it may experience weak oscillations [36] Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (Trend Review) - 1.1 铁矿主力合约走势 (Trend of the main iron ore contract) - This week, the iron ore price showed a strong trend, rebounding in oscillations but still maintaining a high - range oscillating trend [9] - 1.2 铁矿现货走势 (Trend of iron ore spot prices) - The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, and others are presented in a table, indicating price changes [13] 2.基差价差 (Basis and Spread) - 2.1 铁矿期现价差走势 (Trend of the basis between iron ore futures and spot prices) - The main contract basis is 2.5, the spread between 01 - 05 contracts is 23, the spread between pb - super special powder is 91, and the spread between Brazilian coarse - pb powder is 7 [19] - 2.2 螺纹与铁矿比价 (Ratio of rebar to iron ore) - The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak [20] 3.供需分析 (Supply and Demand Analysis) - 3.1 铁矿供应 (Iron ore supply) - This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1987.3 tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore was at a relatively high level year - on - year [23] - 3.2 国际海运费 (International shipping costs) - The shipping price of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.42 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.10 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1893 [26] - 3.3 铁矿库存 - 进口矿库存 (Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory) - Port inventory is 14542.48 tons, Australian ore inventory is 6017.4 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5743.87 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 9310.21 tons [29] - 3.4 铁矿库存 - 钢厂库存 (Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory) - This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 14542.48 tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.89 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8849.86 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229 tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [30] - 3.5 铁矿需求 (Iron ore demand) - This week, the daily average pig iron output was 246.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 tons. The daily average port clearance volume remained high. The rapid decline in pig iron output led to a week - on - week weakening of iron ore demand [33] 4.后市展望 (Outlook for the Future) - Iron ore currently has increased supply and decreased demand, with greater contradictions and increased short - term pressure, and may experience weak oscillations [36]