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十五五规划建议全文发布,资金面整体均衡平稳,债市震荡偏弱,10年期国债收益率小幅上行
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-11-02 03:04
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 28, the central bank increased net open - market injections, improving the capital situation to an overall balanced and stable state. After the positive news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was realized, the bond market was generally weak with a slight upward movement in the 10 - year treasury bond yield. The convertible bond market declined following the stock market, and most individual bonds fell. Overseas, yields of US Treasury bonds across various tenors generally decreased, while the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The full text of the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released on October 28, setting major goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, such as maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, promoting the development of strategic emerging industries, and achieving breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas. It also proposed measures for fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal emphasizes the role of active fiscal policies, enhancing fiscal sustainability, and promoting a more domestic - demand - led and consumption - driven economic development model [5] - China and ASEAN signed the 3.0 - version upgrade protocol of the free - trade area on October 28, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [7] 3.1.2 International News - ADP will start releasing weekly preliminary estimates of private - sector employment data on a weekly basis, providing a four - week moving average of private - sector employment changes. The existing monthly report will still be released as usual [8][9] 3.1.3 Commodities - On October 28, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI December crude futures down 1.89% and Brent December crude futures down 1.86%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.25%, and NYMEX natural gas prices dropped 4.30% [10] 3.2 Capital Situation 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On October 28, the central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 315.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On October 28, the central bank's increased net open - market injections improved the capital situation. DR001 rose 1.58bp to 1.469%, and DR007 fell 2.38bp to 1.558% [13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - After the news of the central bank's bond - buying restart was confirmed on October 28, the bond market was generally weak. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 1.80bp to 1.813%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 1.75bp to 1.8805% [16] - There were several bond - issuing tenders on October 28, with details such as issuance scale, winning bid yields, and multiples provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On October 28, the trading price of "H0 Baolong 04" deviated by over 10%, rising over 37% [18] - Credit - related events include the suspension of trading of 6 corporate bonds of Rongxin Group, the ineffective convening of the "20 Xingfu 01" bondholder meeting of Huaxia Holdings, and the disclosure of overdue debts of Sunshine City [19] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On October 28, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.22%, 0.44%, and 0.15% respectively. The convertible bond market also declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices down 0.24%, 0.30%, and 0.16% respectively [20] - There were rating - related events such as the withdrawal of Jiangsu Zhongxing's "BBB+" international long - term issuer rating and financial - strength rating events of other companies. Some companies also announced losses, overdue reports, and other events [22] - Upcoming events include the listing of Funeng Convertible Bonds, the possible trigger of the conversion - price downward - adjustment condition for Juxing Convertible Bonds, and announcements regarding early redemption of some convertible bonds [28] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On October 28, except for the 3 - year US Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of US Treasury bonds across other tenors generally decreased. The 2 - year yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 3.99% [24] - The 10 - year treasury bond yields of major European economies remained unchanged on October 28 [27] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on October 28 are presented, including the top 10 daily gainers and losers [30]