从M1、M2到资产配置——四季度M1同比的拆解预测

Core Insights - The report predicts that the old-caliber M1 year-on-year growth will decline from 6.2% in September to approximately 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is expected to decrease from 8.4% in September to around 8.0% by year-end [1][10] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth is based on the formula: old-caliber M1 = M2 - other currencies, where M2 is derived from various leverage factors across different sectors [4][14] M1 and M2 Growth Analysis - The report outlines five key factors influencing M2 growth: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors, with a projected M2 year-on-year decline of 900 billion [6][20] - The anticipated decline in M1 growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decrease in corporate loans by 300 billion and a reduction in household deposits by 6200 billion [7][33] - Historical data indicates that changes in M1 correlate with shifts in PPI and industrial inventory levels, suggesting that M1 serves as a leading indicator for these economic metrics [2][13] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of M1 and M2 in relation to asset allocation, highlighting that M1's growth is closely tied to the performance of equity markets and corporate profitability [9][33] - The analysis suggests that a stable equity market environment could lead to a shift in household deposits towards investment assets, thereby impacting M1 growth positively [34][40] Future Projections - The report forecasts that M1 growth will be approximately 2.3 trillion, with M2 growth around 25 trillion, reflecting a broader economic context where monetary policy and market conditions play crucial roles [51][53] - The anticipated government bond issuance is expected to decrease, which may further influence M2 growth dynamics in the upcoming quarters [27][30]