永兴材料（002756）：碳酸锂成本优势维持，涨价弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yongxing Materials [1] Core Views - The cost advantage of lithium carbonate is sustained, and there is potential for price elasticity in the future [1][8] - The company is expected to maintain a low cost level, with lithium prices projected to stabilize around 80,000 yuan/ton, which may release profit elasticity [8] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 700 million, 980 million, and 1.41 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32% in 2025, but growth of 39% and 44% in 2026 and 2027 [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.4%, with a gross margin of 16.6% [8] - The average price of lithium carbonate in Q3 2025 was 71,000 yuan/ton, with a stable all-in cost estimated at 48,000 yuan/ton [8] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The total revenue forecast for 2023 is 12.189 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 21.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.407 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 46.09% [1] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in downstream demand for special steel, with expected contributions of nearly 350 million yuan in profit for the full year 2025 [8]