Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 05:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of shopping center values [3][24][28]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, aiming to establish a new development model and improve the basic systems for property development, financing, and sales [3][24]. - Recent data shows a 9.8% week-on-week increase in new home transactions across 34 key cities, with a total of 2.835 million square meters sold [3][4]. - The report identifies a significant decline in year-on-year sales, with October's total transactions down 26.8% compared to the same month last year [6][7]. - The report notes that the average monthly inventory turnover for residential properties in 15 cities is 23.8 months, indicating a slight decrease [20][22]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - New home sales in 34 cities reached 2.835 million square meters last week, a 9.8% increase from the previous week [3][4]. - Year-on-year, October's new home sales totaled 9.261 million square meters, reflecting a 26.8% decline compared to October of the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home sales in 13 cities totaled 1.152 million square meters last week, a 1.1% decrease from the previous week [12]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales in October were down 22.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory Levels - The total available residential inventory in 15 cities was 89.296 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% [20][21]. - The sales-to-new inventory ratio was 1.59, indicating a healthy turnover rate [20]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights the issuance of the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan" by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments, which supports the issuance of REITs for commercial real estate [24][25]. - The People's Bank of China announced a credit relief policy aimed at assisting the housing market [27]. - Local governments are implementing various housing subsidies, such as a maximum of 15,000 yuan in Yunnan and a combination of housing and consumption vouchers in Hangzhou [27][28]. Company Performance Overview - Several real estate companies reported their Q3 2025 results, with notable declines in net profits for many firms, such as New Town Holdings (9.7 billion yuan, -33.1%) and China Overseas Development (25 billion yuan, -4.0%) [28][30]. - The report mentions the successful listing of a commercial REIT by China Overseas Development, with underlying assets from a shopping center in Foshan [28][30].