Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 07:45Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of COSCO Shipping Holdings and Xiamen Xiangyu exceeded expectations, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector due to institutional underweight positions [2]. - The shipping segment shows resilience, with COSCO's Q3 performance slightly above expectations, and tanker stock performance aligning with freight rate trends. The report anticipates an upward revision in global tanker profitability forecasts [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing sustained growth in demand, with domestic passenger transport reaching 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Major airlines are expected to see significant improvements in profitability [2]. - The express delivery sector is under pressure, but companies like SF Express are showing resilience through strategic investments and market expansion, with expectations for margin improvement in Q4 and next year [2]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in railway passenger and freight volumes, with recommendations for specific railway and highway companies based on performance metrics [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping - COSCO Shipping's Q3 net profit reached CNY 95.33 billion, a 63.20% increase from Q2, while operating cash flow was CNY 142.05 billion, up 32.57% [4][6]. - Recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, with a focus on the tanker segment due to favorable freight rates [2]. Aviation - Domestic airlines achieved a passenger volume of 210 million, with a seat occupancy rate exceeding 84% for three consecutive months, indicating strong recovery [2]. - China Eastern Airlines showed the most significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [2]. Express Delivery - SF Express maintained high growth rates despite margin pressures, with a focus on strategic pricing and market expansion [2]. - The report notes initial signs of profit recovery in the express delivery sector due to price increases in core regions [2]. Rail and Highway - The report highlights a growth in railway passenger and freight volumes, with specific recommendations for companies like Daqin Railway and Zhejiang Huhang Highway [2]. - The highway segment is also showing positive trends, with several companies reporting significant increases in net profit and cash flow [2].