旺季去库提速，供应博弈加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for lithium carbonate [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices first rose and then fell, with the closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 showing increases. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed accordingly. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased, but there were market rumors affecting the market sentiment, leading to profit - taking by long positions [1][2][13] - From a fundamental perspective, the demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. However, the inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, the short - term market will focus on the resumption rhythm of Jiangxi mica projects, with increased market volatility. It is recommended to use a range - trading approach. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seasonal Inventory Reduction Accelerates, and Supply - Side Game Intensifies - Lithium salt prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed [1][13] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 12.7 million tons this week, accelerating the inventory reduction. However, market rumors on Friday led to profit - taking by long positions [2][14] - The demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. The inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, short - term market volatility will increase with the game over the resumption of Jiangxi mica projects. A range - trading approach is recommended. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. The reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Pilbara's lithium spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased by 1.7% quarter - on - quarter, the sales price of spodumene SC6 increased by 19% quarter - on - quarter, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 13% [17] - Dazhong Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with a lithium ore resource of 489.872 million tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [17] - Albemarle's 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% lithium spodumene concentrate was sold at a price of RMB 7,058 per ton [18] - Imerys is in exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in its lithium mine project in central France and is confident of completing the transaction by the end of January [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rise - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rising from $881 per ton to $944 per ton, a 7.2% increase [14] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Position Reduction and Price Decline due to News Disturbance - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend with increasing positions last week, but there was a significant position reduction of 22,000 lots on Friday, accompanied by a 3.14% decline, with a weekly increase of 1.6% [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Remain Strong - The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes increased slightly, and the prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide showed an upward or stable trend [15][14] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50% in September, indicating strong terminal demand [41]