超长债周报：国债买卖重启，超长债大涨-20251102

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market rose significantly due to factors such as the central bank governor's announcement to resume open - market treasury bond trading, the Sino - US summit consensus, and the Fed's interest rate cut. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, and the curve steepened. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. - Considering the domestic economic situation and the central bank's policy, the probability of a bond market rebound is high. The 30 - 10 spread of treasury bonds and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are expected to compress [2][3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market soared. The decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less, the curve steepened. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still very active. The term spread narrowed, and the variety spread widened [1][10]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bonds: As of October 31, the 30 - 10 spread was 35BP, at a historically low level. With economic downward pressure and deflation risks, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - 20 - year CDB Bonds: As of October 31, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 15BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic conditions, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the variety spread is expected to compress again [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. The 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased. A total of 105.1 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued, mainly local government bonds. By term, 15 - year bonds were 25.3 billion, 20 - year were 30.8 billion, and 30 - year were 49 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan this week is 62.9 billion yuan, including 20 billion of ultra - long treasury bonds, 41.4 billion of ultra - long local government bonds, and 1.5 billion of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a turnover of 1.0428 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.2% of all bond turnover. Trading activity decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the turnover increased by 11.2 billion yuan, and the proportion decreased by 0.3% [28]. Yield - Due to multiple factors, the bond market rose, and the decline of ultra - long bonds was slightly less. The yields of different - term and different - type bonds changed accordingly. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special treasury bond 02's yield changed by - 3.9BP to 2.07% [41][42]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 35BP, 1BP lower than the previous week, at the 15% quantile since 2010 [48]. - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread changed by 3BP and 6BP respectively, at the 12% and 13% quantiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 3 - year treasury bond futures' main variety TL2512 closed at 116.68 yuan, an increase of 1.45%. The total trading volume was 678,600 lots (- 14,457 lots), and the open interest was 182,800 lots (+ 6,763 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [55].