煤炭行业周报（11月第1周）：量变渐成质变，第二轮行情蓄势待发-20251102

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to rise after a week of consolidation, with the arrival of the heating season in November leading to increased procurement by power plants. The demand for heating will prevent the usual seasonal decline in consumption, and power plant inventories are gradually being depleted. A supply gap is anticipated, with coal prices potentially reaching 800 RMB/ton [6][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company among thermal coal firms, and Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Lu'an Environmental Energy among coking coal firms [6][25] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a decline of 0.43% as of October 31, 2025, mirroring the drop in the CSI 300 index. A total of 14 stocks rose while 23 fell, with Antai Group showing the highest increase of 8.36% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.2 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The average daily coal production was 7.19 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% [2][24] Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 685 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The price index for imported thermal coal was 866 RMB/ton, down 2.04% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port remained stable at 1,740 RMB/ton, while the price of Australian peak coal increased by 1.88% week-on-week [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total coal inventory of monitored enterprises (including port storage) was 22.92 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. The cumulative sales volume of coal this year was 210.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [2][24] - The report indicates that the chemical industry’s coal consumption has increased by 14.8% year-on-year, while power and chemical industries have seen a decrease in coal consumption of 2.5% and an increase of 14.8%, respectively [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal market is poised for a second wave of growth, with a focus on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal sector. It highlights the importance of monitoring companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for potential investment opportunities [6][25]