宏观周报：宏观预期边际回暖-20251102

Inflation Indicators - CPI shows a decline in pork prices while vegetable prices have generally increased, with a current rate of 1.46%[2] - PPI is influenced by rising crude oil prices, with a slight increase in black commodity prices, currently at 0.49%[4] Domestic Demand - Consumer travel radius is returning to normal, but passenger car sales have seen a year-on-year decline of 14.6%[3] - External demand shows a decrease in volume but an increase in price, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) at 1996.1, down 5.7%[3] Production Stability - October production remains stable, with a manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction[3] - The construction sector continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 2.14% in real estate infrastructure[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of ordinary government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 1549.06 billion issued, up 90.1%[4] - The central bank is expected to restart government bond trading, leading to a significant downward shift in the yield curve[4] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, shifting policy towards stabilizing growth, with the target range now at 3.75%-4.00%[4] - Major economies are experiencing policy divergence, with the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintaining their current stances[5]