农林牧渔行业周报第36期:猪价中枢大幅上移,行业显著减亏-20251102
HUAXI Securities·2025-11-02 09:00

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork price center has significantly risen, leading to a notable reduction in industry losses. The average price of live pigs has increased to 12.51 CNY/kg, a week-on-week rise of 7.20% [2][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain a good development momentum, with grain production projected to be high this year, including summer grain production of 299.48 billion jin and early rice production increasing by 6.8 billion jin, a growth of 1.2% [1][12] - The industry is currently in a supply-demand tug-of-war, with large-scale pig farms adopting strategies to control supply and raise prices, while demand is expected to improve with the arrival of warmer weather and the pickling season [2][13] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The agricultural sector is implementing key policies to support rural economic development, with a focus on achieving food security and enhancing crop yields through biotechnology [1][12] - Major beneficiaries in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, while in the seed industry, companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for their competitive advantages [1][12] Pig Farming - The pig farming industry is still experiencing losses, but there has been a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous week, with self-breeding farms reporting an average loss of 89.33 CNY per head, down nearly 100 CNY [2][13] - The industry is expected to undergo a process of capacity reduction, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency, leading to the gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [2][13] - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include companies like DeKang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods [2][13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2241.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.66% [27][28] - Wheat: The average price is 2482.11 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [30][32] - Soybeans: The average price is 3996.84 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.06% [41][44] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 14660 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [46][50] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.6 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.38% [53][55] - The average price of Vitamin E is 50.30 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 14.58% [62][63]