Ping An Securities·2025-11-02 09:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][7][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.47% to 1.899 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 10.63% to 305 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][7] - The introduction of new medical beauty products, particularly the "Hai Mei Yue Bai" hyaluronic acid product, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and improve overall performance [7][8] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 370 million, 440 million, and 510 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to initial market penetration of new products [7][9] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.654 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.6% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 420 million yuan, with a slight increase of 1.0% year-on-year [6][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain stable, with projections of 70.5% in 2023 and gradually increasing to 72.3% by 2027 [6][9] - The company's asset-liability ratio is low at 17.3%, indicating a strong balance sheet [1][9] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 2.698 billion yuan in 2024, 2.755 billion yuan in 2025, 2.976 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.269 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The expected net profit for 2025 is revised to 367 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.8% compared to the previous year [6][9] Cost and Expense Analysis - The report highlights an increase in sales and management expense ratios, with sales expenses rising to 34.96% and management expenses to 20.00% in Q3 2025 [7][9] - The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency despite the rising costs associated with new product launches [7][9]