Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-02 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BYD, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights BYD's stable operations and long-term investment value, with a core expectation of expanding overseas [1]. - Despite a challenging domestic market, BYD's product strength and potential for global expansion are seen as key drivers for future growth [9]. - The report adjusts revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a more cautious outlook while maintaining a positive long-term view [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, total revenue is projected at 870,123 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 36,724 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.8% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.1% for profits from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential despite short-term challenges [9]. Sales and Profitability - In Q3 2025, BYD's revenue was 194,985 million yuan, a decrease of 3.05% year-on-year, while net profit was 7,823 million yuan, down 32.60% year-on-year [9]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 was approximately 137,000 yuan, showing a slight decline [9]. - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 17.6%, reflecting a recovery in profitability [9]. Overseas Expansion - BYD's overseas automotive revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 83.1 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 22.7 billion yuan, indicating strong international performance [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for overseas operations to contribute significantly to profit growth in the next 2-3 years [9].