政策窗口临近，关注低位消费地产

Investment Focus - The report emphasizes that market volatility is expected to persist until the outcomes of China-U.S. negotiations become clear, suggesting investors should buy on dips. However, a rally occurred before the leaders' meeting, leading to profit-taking adjustments afterward. The pullback is viewed as a technical correction with limited downside, representing a staged opportunity for accumulation during weakness [1][8]. Market Trends - Recent closures of private funds managed by prominent asset managers indicate that bubbles have formed in certain popular sectors, making it difficult to find stocks with long-term return potential. This suggests a need for time to digest previous gains before new investment opportunities arise. The report highlights that more certain allocation opportunities are found in large-cap blue-chip stocks that have lagged in performance [2][9]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The upcoming Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of a stronger financial system and the role of capital markets in supporting technological innovation. Key policy priorities include enhancing direct financing, expanding market structures, and increasing support for technology-driven companies in IPOs and M&A. Additionally, new guidelines for public mutual fund performance benchmarks aim to standardize practices and improve investor protection [3][10]. Capital Rotation and Trading Activity - A shift in capital has been observed, with small- and mid-cap stocks outperforming large caps due to corrections in technology leaders and high-dividend blue chips. Trading volumes in A-shares and Hong Kong equities have rebounded, indicating a shift in market focus towards policy expectations. Notably, A-share turnover increased from RMB 1.8 trillion to RMB 2.3 trillion, while Hong Kong turnover rose to HKD 280 billion [4][11]. Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for October fell to 49, indicating weakening production and export demand. As the economy softens, the market is expected to focus on policy signals from the December economic meeting, particularly regarding demand-side stimulus. The report continues to favor large-cap blue chips, especially those benefiting from domestic demand policies. Within the financial sector, insurance stocks have performed well, while brokerages are suggested for attention due to their earnings leverage [5][13]. Technology Sector Insights - The report notes that the recent correction in the technology sector may provide a second entry window for investors, particularly in Hong Kong tech stocks. If the weakness continues, it is recommended to focus on subsectors with smaller prior rebounds that align with the upcoming Five-Year Plan, such as domestic computing infrastructure, to capture tactical recovery opportunities [15].